tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg May 26, 2017 10:00am-11:01am EDT
vonnie: we will cover the g-7 new code of conduct for fx traders and much more over the next two hours. first, some breaking u.s. economic data. julie hyman has the details. we have the university of michigan sentiment reading for may. 97.1, a little lower than estimated. the current conditions index continues to be elevated while the expectations index continues to be a bit lower. confident still relatively strong. earlier we got the gdp data for the first quarter, revised data that came in higher than initially estimated. then the consumer sentiment data coming on the heels of that.
much more current data as well continuing to show relative strength. we are not seeing much movement overall in the major averages. any gain today in the s&p and nasdaq will mean a record close for those two indices. going into a holiday weekend, you tend to see suppressed volume in that kind of situation. that picture throughout the course of the day. the discussion has been continuing as well as to the contributions of a handful of stocks to gains in the major averages this year. we have the so-called big five we are watching, alphabet, amazon, apple, facebook, and microsoft. all of these touched a record yesterday with the exception of apple. combined market cap approaching $3 trillion. point $94 trillion at the moment as stocks continue to rise on the market breath has been generally brought it during the rally.
retail in focus today as well. a mixed picture in retail. people talk about the death of retail also tend to note it is not monolithic. so you have consistent salon,ers like ulta which continues to kill it. 11%.ompany's cop sales up 71% surge in e-commerce sales. costco also performing well. comparable sales up 5%, better than estimated. big lots cop sales falling unexpectedly but companies earnings doing better than forecast. again, not all monolithic. gamestop dropping pretty steeply today, down 8%. it had a boost from the nintendo reported, --best i best buy reported, but it is not sure how long they can consistently depend on those
numbers. of a new game dampening outlooks. monolithic, what a wonderful word. down for the day, down by 1/5 of 1%. we have come back from the losses since last wednesday, the trump-induced losses which sent the stoxx 600 down. you can see both are moving in tandem. stocks moving up with the pmi manufacturing data. stronger relative to its u.s. cousin. also a wonderful chart showing hedge funds may still be short based on the cftc data.
there is a net long position by institutional investors, which the top line shows, has increased to a record. historically, institutional investors have not been active .n the futures market in the old days, their interest was about 20,000 to 40,000 contracts. since then, the long euro position has been surging. 269,000 last week. big move in sterling today. is polls are showing the get between the conservative party and the labour party has narrowed to five percentage points. a week ago, it was nine percentage points. some polls have put the lead at 27 percentage points in the wake of the manchester bombings and also in the wake of a flip-flop by the conservative party on a social care policy, something investors are concerned about, sending sterling down by 1%.
vonnie: getting interesting, that is for sure. back in the u.s., president trump, he is in italy, we are here, but he is wrapping up his first foreign trip. today, he is making his g-7 debut after some tough talks. the summit will involve debates on global trade, climate change, and migration. italy's prime minister, who is hosting the summit, says leaders want results but talks will not be easy. from sicily is kevin cirilli, our chief washington correspondent, who has been traveling all week with president trump, and matt miller. we have a draft of the communique. it looks like migration will be one of the subjects hit hard. "we have reaffirmed the right of
sovereign states to control their own borders and set clear limits on net migration levels." what does that mean for current migrants making their way to europe and the united states? to sayhat they're trying is every member of the g-7 still ecidehe sovereign to d that for themselves. it's an important issue for italy. italy has the presidency of the g7 this year. right now we are on the island of sicily in the mediterranean hop, skip, and a jump away from the italian coast where navy soldiers routinely pull refugees out of the water, so many trying to get to europe, getting away from the issues they are dealing with in northern africa, including the war in syria. it is causing problems and somewhat say boosting the economy. germany has been quite strong since on the lamarck role took
in a million refugees -- angela merkel took in a million refugees. this is something they want to talk about and they are pushing it in the communique. vonnie: we don't know what else will be in that, but we know it will be difficult to get things like climate change in there. what will president trump agree to? point, theret's are several differences here between president trump and his european counterparts, most notably immigration, and climate change. he got a message from the pope in the vatican city the other day meeting with him. he gave him a book on climate change. clearly here in europe, he is facing pressure from european counterparts at the g7 to do something with the paris accord. i have been told there are no significant developments that we are anticipating regarding the paris accord for the remainder of this trip. in fact, there will be no more
press evidence with the exception of this briefing this afternoon. i can also tell you it has been somewhat of a different response that the europeans have given president trump on his first international trip, compared to response he got in saudi arabia. earlier, i went to a briefing with a european president who said that he was impressed with president trump's tough this and that europe should be tough, even brutal. are somee scenes there of easements going on to try to win over president trump but clearly some key differences have emerged. two words standout today, very bad. these are the words that president trump used when he talked about germany flooding the u.s. market with cars. are those comments going down in the german camp?
matt: some have called it a tempest in a teacup, but for the optics, the day before he meets with angela merkel in sicily, doesn't make a lot of sense to germans. it was play out across all of the german newspapers. it appeared on the most widely read paper as well. bottom line, he has made comments like this before, he has had concerns since before he was president, about the amount of german cars stalled in the u.s.. he wants to see more u.s. products around the world. of course, the u.s. has pulled their operations -- gm has pulled her operations out of germany. there are a lot of issues, it is an incredibly complex industry. you cannot really point to any car and say it is 100% aid in
one country, unless you are talking about, like, a morgan. may address that comment when she speaks in about two hours time, but i don't think it will have serious repercussions. mark: kevin, you have been there the whole week, you have been there for the entirety of the president's first trip. this g-7 meeting and the nato meeting was saving him the worst for last. as that come true given what matt has said, we talked about the macron handshake, shoving a fellow nato member out of the way. the end of the trip has not gone as smoothly as the beginning. kevin: that is a fair assessment, then you throw in the fact that the washington post is reporting that jared kushner is under investigation, a part of the investigations, and of the senate intelligence committee is issuing subpoenas
for the investigation. this has beensay quite rough on the backend. i can also tell you the readout we got from the presidents meeting with the japanese prime minister suggests they are working on policy to rein in north korea. two matt miller's excellent point about the differences between chancellor merkel and president trump, let us also note, former president barack obama was speaking in germany just the other day, talking about the need for there not to be a building of walls. so it is really night and day, when you see the dynamic and the shift about how the g7 once operated under now former president obama, and now today. vonnie: kevin cirilli and matt miller, thank you. let's get a check on the first word news. emma: the u.s. economy was not
so bad in the first quarter after all. gdp was revised upward to an annual rate of 1.2%. consumer spending the better than expected, the biggest part of the u.s. economy. business investment was stronger than first thought. openedt, unknown gunmen fire on a bus filled with coptic christians headed to a monastery. at least 26 were killed and 20 others were wounded. witnesses said the attackers wore military uniforms and wore masks. the next up for the president trump travel ban will be the supreme court. the ruling said the executive order "drips with religious intolerance, animus, and discrimination." montana, the republican charge with assaulting a reporter has won a special election for the state's only seat in the house. greg gene forte took about 50% of the vote, compared to 44% of
the democrat. democrats had hoped to capitalize on president trump's low approval ratings. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm emma chandra. this is bloomberg. coming up, oil getting whipsawed. opec weaving a number of questions unanswered. we will assess the market reaction. that is the two-day crude oil chart. this is bloomberg. ♪
this is bloomberg markets on bloomberg television. oil heading for a weekly loss. moved to prolong supply cuts for nine months disappointing investors hoping for more. joining us from the cme is tim evans. was it as big a letdown as we are led to believe? i would say yes and no. definitely, opec came to the gunfight with a knife, so to speak. the market began to price in a few days leading up to the meeting that there could be a likelihood that opec would look to extend those cuts but also deepen the cuts. when the extension came out for another nine months and there were no additional cuts in terms of debt, the market received that with a little bit of disappointment. mark: can opec now as a result sustain oil around 50 as
a bottom, 60 as a top, what are your key ranges now? tim: i would say through the summer season, $50 should be pretty supportive. i don't really see $58, anything some that, barring it outside event that could impact the market. i think with the expansion of the man that you typically see on a seasonal basis during the summer season, that should allow inventory levels to draw down some people we will still have an issue as we head into the fall and winter seasons, looking for long-term balance. mark: how worried are you about opec's exit strategy? some are concerned after nine months is over, we don't know what will happen. it is opec going to pump at will? is that your primary fear when it comes to the opec meeting? fear for bullish
prices in crude oil is actually the u.s. response to the deal. that opec is making in terms of u.s. response is way too conservative. u.s. capacity increase 10% year-over-year. it is fair to expect we could possibly see another 5%, which would be another 500,000 barrels added, to output levels, which is a third of the overall cut. i see that being very problematic for long-term balance over the market. let's talk gold. it's been a week where we have seen some bullish technical developments with a golden cross. what sort of upside, how is gold withstanding the prospects of a potential rate hike in june? tim: i would say market behavior up to this point is impressive. andou look at the landscape
consider all of the bullish and bearish factors that are driving the price of gold, the list on the bearish side is much longer than the bullish side. the fact that we have that very significant technical development, as you indicated, in the golden cross, given the environment, is very impressive. my view on that, gold is pricing geopolitical and domestic political issues a lot differently than what we are seeing in the global equity markets, especially u.s. indices. i think that has a lot to do with the balance that we have seen given the barratt developments in cold. mark: thanks a lot, enjoy the holiday. -- bullish developments in gold. futures in focus, bonnie. vonnie: time for the latest bloomberg business flash. durable goods orders in the u.s. fell in april for the first time in five months, down .7%.
orders for transportation equipment declined as well, down by 9%. after a second month of stagnant orders for business equipment, indicates investment in capital goods could now slow. aackberry will end up getting $940 million payment from qualcomm in royalties. an arbitrator ruled the canadian company had overpaid qualcomm under a license agreement. the total includes interest and attorney fees. that is your latest bloomberg business flash. aims are ticket getting more and more clever, even going back in time to austin powers. we will discuss if that makes a difference when it comes to attracting assets. this is bloomberg. ♪
mark: this is bloomberg markets. i'm mark barton. vonnie: i'm vonnie quinn. etf friday.or julie hyman joins us for a look at whether etf ticker names make a difference. names for etf's have been getting more and more creative, more evocative. to talk about it is rachel evans, our bloomberg etf reporter. recently wrote about this. the one that caught your eye that i think would catch anyone's is a new one from ,isdom tree, the ticker is shag mary austin powers evocative here. what exactly is this etf? rachel: it certainly caught my eye and others attention as well. a ticker name for a new etf from wisdom tree investments. enhancedname is the
yield u.s. short-term aggregate bond fund. a bit of a mouthful. as a way toth shag capture the imagination. it comes from short-term aggregates, but they knew what they were doing their. is no accident that you come up with a ticker like that. why do you do that, especially when it is not very descriptive of what the underlying etf is, so why the motivation? rachel: the etf market has become increasingly crowded in recent years. etf's have 2000-odd computing for investors attention. to stand up from the crowd, you need a differentiating factor. it could be a new country exposure, or you could try to get some interest invested in the way that storefronts used to do with a catchy name. that is where something like shag steals margin from competitors. julie: are there some others
that have these catchy names? rachel: i have a few favorites, for sure. there is one called moo, that was one of came early out capturing people's imagination. a have had takers like tan, solar energy etf. when thatack, launched in 2014, followed quickly by a security breach at sony pictures. that got a lot of assets flowing into that. julie: do these names work, do they get an advantage over similar etf's that don't have a name that is as catchy? is limited,evidence but if we look at the solar industry, for example, compare tan with kwt. within a week one another, very similar fees, similar holdings. tan has about 20 times the
first word news. ,mma chandra has more . emma: president trump is attending his first g-7 summit. gary says president trump is leaning toward understanding the european position that the u.s. must stay in the paris climate accord, president trump's. son-in-law is facing investigation by the fbi into the election. kushner is now a senior white house adviser. one of kushner's lawyer says he will share what he knows about those meetings. in the u.k., labor leader jeremy corbyn says the war on terrorism is working. -- isn't working. labor has shows that
pulled within five points of the conservatives. the european union is set to reveal a new demand in the brexit negotiations. wantsou once it -- the eu its top port after the country leaves the block. prime minister theresa may says that they will end the port authority over to british law. news 24 hours a day powered by 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, this is bloomberg. global code is a bit like the hippocratic oath for traders. set voluntary standards and that carving misconduct. it lead to $10 million worth of fine for banks. the man helping to steer these efforts will serve as
vice-chairman of a new committee set up to promote the standards and he joins us now. a long time coming. how did you come to an agreement on what is acceptable and what is not when it comes to forex trading? ormuch of it is instinct seeing something faster than somebody else or taking advantage of a hole in the market. david: thank you for giving me the opportunity to speak about it today. the code was launched yesterday and this was the second phase of the code. the first phase was launched exactly one year ago and we have seen some of the principles put into practice over the course of that time. we spent two years and took deliberately two years to ensure that we covered not just the easy issues but the most challenging issues of the market might face. vonnie: did you get input from forex traders themselves? i know that there are a lot of comments when you put out the research.
given that it's something you have to enforce yourself, do a lot of people write to you and say, this is great, but it's not going to work? david: at the core putting together the fx global code was bringing together what i believe is the most significant public-private partnership in markets that has existed. we had 45 private sector participants from every corner of the market from karina from china from india, brazil, mexico, and all major centers alongside the leading central banks of the world. 16 central banks and heads of markets from each of the central banks. are input was quite significant. at the end of the day, we believe we received well over 10,000 comments on the work that we were doing. this to your process was all-encompassing and what we did. we think we covered all the issues that affect the marketplace today. mark: the code is voluntary. some say tougher rules and enforcement might be a better solution. what do you say to that?
david: the question that i was asked most often throughout this process. how do you get a market to adhere to a voluntary set of principles? i've two answers to that. one is these principles guide best practice in the market and i think you have what is arguably the world's largest, most liquid, and most important financial market. most wholesale market participants want that market to function more effectively. know, no principles, no rules, no regulations, no laws will stop someone who wants to act dishonorably or break those laws. we are counting on the market to adopt those principles and get behind them because it does lead to a stronger marketplace. mark: it seems that. pressure might be part of this. this pressure enough? david: it certainly seems to be. we have seen good evidence of this that the entirety of the major market participants, the wholesale market, and this includes big firms, hedge funds,
asset managers, corporations of all sizes have already indicated that they are willing to get behind the code and sign the statement of commitment and begin to put these principles and practice. vonnie: it's not just a pressure. you want to see your manager acting in the most ethical way possible because he's responsible for your bonus. he is probably setting the targets. it's very hard on the one hand to act very ethically. if your manager isn't, you're not going to, right? david: the tone from the top in any business is absolutely critical. what we have seen over the last several years old when the financial crisis -- following the initial crisis and the trust broken the markets, and as you highlighted, some instances in the foreign exchange market has really change the burden act of market participants to say we can oversee this market. the foreign exchange market has
no central regulatory body. the principles are not intended in any way to replace regulation. they are meant to supplement regulation. vonnie: in the last day or two, vanguard's head of fx trading says and the last look got rid of. if you can explain a nutshell what this is an white sugar one if it should go with? -- why it should go away and if it should go away? david: look like any practice, and helps add to the liquidity. if abused, it will turn the market and a bad direction. what we have been able to do is provide some guidelines about how last look can be used effectively. heavily on transparency and how market participants share information with one another. i believe that last look, while it may go away in the next 3-5
years, we believe that last look is an important part of the market today and helps the market operate more smoothly. vonnie: there are examples here. just take one. should onlycipants pre-hedge client orders when acting as a principal and should do so fairly. with transparency, you give an example where a lot of fx traders are saying that's not how the market works, so how are we supposed to make the mar mony at the end of the day? david: we make it very clear that if pre-hedging is done with transparency and in the best interests of the client, it helps execute the order must effectively. mark: the rate rigging scandal led to $10 billion in fines for banks. it severely damaged trust and industry. -- is it representative of the last chance to win for the fx industry? david: i wouldn't like to look at it as a last chance but a new era of the foreign exchange
market. we have been at this for two years now with the broadest set of market participants possible. i think this is a very strong opportunity for the market to demonstrate how can operate most effectively and how can deliver both for the buy side and the sell side. it's critical to note that this code was not written solely for cel-sci participants. it was written for all market participants to help participate in the market in a way that is more effective tomorrow but maybe what was done in the past. mark: david, those who do this properly are going to be added to public lists. can you explain who is going to maintain these lists? who's going to publish these lists? is that being finalized? david: there are a number of public registers that have been proposed. what we will do to the global foreign exchange committee, which launched officially yesterday in london, will provide a register of lists in
an index of list that can be accessed. i expect companies to maintain the list that will be attending publicly. cls,e that our company, will actually act as a public register. vonnie: their plenty of regulators at least have a hand in the fx market. is there anybody that can make this mandatory? david: there certainly possibilities that regulators will build elements of the code into local regulation. we did not rule that out. my expectation is the voluntary will helpthe code lessen the need for further regulation in the foreign exchange market. that was part of our purpose from the day we embark on the process. vonnie: completely ethical foreign-exchange traders is what we need.
, raucous has been rocked by nearly daily clashes by protesters and police as the president clings to power. the country is plagued with shortages from everything from toilet paper to antibiotics to food on top of triple digit inflation. widespread violence crime and corruption allegations. here's the situation. maduro proposed a vote with the power to rewrite venezuela's constitution. would do her say a new constitution will bring peace to venezuela, but it's all a ruse to delay holding elections canceled last year. oil dependent economy has continued to collapse. in fell a staggering 10% 2016 according to the imf and signs of hyperinflation are appearing. is the background. elected predecessor was revolutionizedio and
the party with anti-american rhetoric. he used widespread support to transform a pluralistic democracy into an authoritarian system. unlike chavez, maduro has struggled with popularity. many think it is time for him to leave office. though skeptical of the opposition make up more than a andle party of opposition nor did the parties necessarily have a mandate to unwind the shop's legacy. disapprovedf those of maduro's performance, but in a recent poll, 57% of respondents say they still hold chavez in high regard. you can read more about venezuela and all of our quick takes on the bloomberg. in venezuelasis
raises moral concerns about the growing popularity of investing in impact investment funds, yielding high returns based on the riskiness. of the director of the center for international development at harvard kennedy school is calling for a change in one of the leading emerging-market indices. thank you for joining us today. you have written this op-ed published today. you say that j.p. morgan and the way calculates its indices should drop venezuela. you are suggesting it should introduce decent emerging-market indices. what is behind this and you think it's actually feasible? >> is a simple reform. indicesou calculate the that fund managers are supposed to track? investorswant to have have to have moral qualms about what is happening to their savings and where their savings are going.
are they going to find a corrupt regime that are starving their people in order to pay you? rejoicingwant to be at bad things happening to people in a country so that you get paid. you don't need that moral aggravation. it's easier to just get venezuela out of the picture, get it out of the indices, have fun managers not need to track venezuela, and not need to get the venezuela call right. offlare of yielding upwards 25%, they represent a huge part of the yield on these emerging-market on funds. -- bond funds. they cannot investigate to get the venezuela call right. themselves, will the government be sufficiently capable of compressing imports even more, starving its people, and repressing them so there is enough cash flow to pay my bonds? you don't need that.
you want your savings to support the growth of emerging markets and not to screw people around. investors should not like to feel that their money is tainted with the blood of venezuela people. vonnie: we get in touch with j.p. morgan and a firm no comment on this matter. i do want to bring up a quote from your article that appeared today and it's called hunger bonds. you say venezuela is expensive one of the must clim calamitous economic collapses ever, accompanied by massive doses of political repression and human rights violations. informs you this that the country is literally starving its people to avoid restructuring your bonds. your personal experiences with the brother who is a journalist in jail for the last nine months? ricardo: my brother-in-law, yes. vonnie: blended bondholders have to be moral -- when did bondholders
have to be moral? ricardo: this is the difference between doing good and doing well. you wish that you can do well and at the same time do good. that you make your savings available for people to use them effectively. that is why most of the time, investing is not a morally questionable thing. when you get situations like the venezuela situation where you are essentially trying to bet on government of this to repress enough people so as to keep on servicing your debt, than of that case, you are putting yourself in this uncomfortable situation you don't need. you have some the other investor options. vonnie: venezuela is in trouble. people have lost on average 19 pounds apiece since the food shortages came into effect. is trying to tease
a public that is not happy. why do come up with the name hunger bonds and you really think it's the right fight to pick? ricardo: look, venezuela -- when and andrnment an venezuela starts to recover, they will need to restructure these bonds. vonnie: these investors know they will get pennies on the dollar. when has a situation like this ever result? ricardo: in the context of restructuring, the managers of your investments are going to extract the extra final pound that will slow down the recovery. vonnie: if you are in line for some piece of bread, you're not worried about bondholders. courts can settle it down the line. ricardo: now, if the country ofes the payments of upwards $4 billion, it is $4 billion we won't be able to use for imports. people will either pay the bonds
or starve or eat, but you cannot do both at the same time. vonnie: where you see venezuela headed right now? we talked about changes to the constitution that would permit elections. will that happen? i don't want to mention the word coup, but will that happen before the? n? ricardo: i'm not good at putting th predicting politics. the government cannot call elections because it would lose them. they are trying to invest a cuban style constitution assembly that will avoid having passed the people do you want maduro to continue or not continue? you want to elect a new president or not a new president? 20 governors would lose their seats. that is why the government is trying to invent ways not to have to go back to the people for their vote, because they know they would lose it. vonnie: do you being able to
cover debt at the moment? ricardo: no. vonnie: what will happen? ricardo: venezuela has really been unable to sustainably service its debt. it has caps on repaid. the way it has done it has restricted imports so much of the country is living off the depreciating stock of capital invested in the past. it is living off starvation and so on. venezuela gdp will continue following at high rates. gdp fell 10%. the best estimate is that it fell more than 17% and about 27% in the last three years. domestic demand fell 40% in the last three years. you're talking about a country that has seen a recession like no other recession ever in this hemisphere. frightening.
and we are seeing protests on the streets more and more now. ricardo: what you would want to imports, getover international financial support from the imf and multilateral's ,nd so on, improve the policies open up the oil sector for investment, and in that context, the economy will start recovering. you want them to have your investors willing to invest in the buildup of the future venezuela and not being the holdouts of the ones invested in the destruction of venezuela. vonnie: when you see what bolivar gdpith all o figures that you don't know the correct figures for, the oil company is the only way venezuela gets any income. where does that oil an end up? you said there will not be a coup because there's no opposition. ricardo: the opposition is very
well organized. mud and they are calling these demonstrations and millions of people are going to these demonstrations with the and that maduro will quit of the vice president is indicted as a kingpin. there's the constitutional process whereby the president of the national assembly would take over on temporary basis in order to call elections. if we asked people what they want, they want elections. in the elections, they will decide who they want as president. right now, they don't want to change. the government doesn't want to ask people what their opinion is because they know the people don't want the government. vonnie: i hope we revisit this topic same. soon. smmann, thank you. mark: growing brexit fears/
mark: 35 minutes left in the friday session and i want to show you the currency board. interesting moves in sterling today after this poll by you give show the conservative lead over the opposition labor party has shrunk to five percentage points. a week ago it was nine. some polls showed it widen to 24 percentage points. the biggest decline since february at 1% for today. 13036.ago it was the close is next. ♪
♪ mark: go the top stories we're covering from the bloomberg and the world. president trump, angela merkel, d other leaders gather in sicily today as trump has tough ford for germany's economic policy. u.k. prime minister theresa may is an civilly and polls are tightening dramatically as the labor party and jeremy corbyn make a push ahead of the election. is it time for the tories to start worrying? and and markets, oil slightly higher, still below the $50 a . barrel mark. likechange strategies saudi arabia finally ending the cre cre